Loading ...Oddsmakers like IU; Sagarin ratings favor SIU
1 comment
by Doug Wilson | Sunday, December 17, 2006 - 10:43 am UTC
The consensus is that Southern Illinois is going to give the Hoosiers a difficult game tonight.
The betting line this morning favors Indiana, but not by much — 3.5 points
And if you look at the Sagarin Ratings, you see a different picture. Sagarin has SIU ranked at No. 19 in the country with a rating of 87.29. He has IU ranked at No. 52 in the country with a rating of 81.82.
To make a prediction on an individual game, Sagarin recommends you subtract the lower rated team’s ranking from the higher rated team’s ranking and then add four points to the home team. That formula makes SIU close to a two-point favorite in tonight’s 8 p.m. nationally televised game.
It’s amazing how much attention is paid to the Sagarin ratings. I want to start my own rating system, the “Ben” ratings, and whenever anyone asks how it works I’ll tell them, “Ummm, I can’t tell you, it’s proprietary. But it’s based on actual math!”