ScoopTalk: No. 1 vs. No. 3

7 comments by   |   Friday, February 1, 2013 - 10:09 pm EDT

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7 comments:
#1
Geoff
Saturday, February 2, 2013 - 5:17 PM EDT

So thought I dig a little for this one and come up with 5 Things… To do that I researched Michigan’s 5 toughest games of the season, to see what trends I could find. So I looked at the Kansas St game (MSG), NC State, @ OSU, @ Minny, and @ Illinois.

1) Michigan doesn’t really set tempo… Clearly that’s not a negative thing for them since they are 20-1, but I think it’s a positive for IU. The Hoosiers struggle most against teams that are more deliberate and want to slow things down. Michigan seems to play at whatever pace the other good team plays at – they played at OSU’s tempo and lost 56-53 and were extremely efficient (52% FG, 9 TO) in beating a deliberate KSU team 71-57. Then they beat NC ST and Minnesota playing fast. My guess is this game does play at a higher tempo and the outcome will be dictated more by efficiency than pace. Final score for the winning team should be 75+.

2) Stauskas is the key… Obviously the 2 most important players to UM are Burke and Hardaway, but they are so good it tough to stop them. Much of Michigan’s success (like IU) comes from spreading the offense around. In UM’s only loss @ OSU, they were able to hold Stauskas scoreless. In the other 4 good wins he averaged 14 ppg. The other thing about Stauskas is the way he scores energizes his team – deadly 3′s mixed with strong drives to the basket, he can finish through contact and tries to dunk on top of you. My plan would be to take Nick out of the game – whether by attacking him and seeing if you can get early fouls, or switching Dipo on him when Jordy’s on the bench… Something to limit his effectiveness or get in his head.

3) Yogi is the key… No I’m not copying Harvard. My thought here is similar of that to “pressing teams hate to be pressed”… I think the only match-up for Burke is Yogi, so obviously he needs to stay in front when he has the ball and deny as much as possible when he doesn’t. My guess is UM’s offense will break down if Burke isn’t running it. UM will also probably mix it up more, and earlier, on defense than other teams to this point. It important that Yogi attack the seams in the zone to get our shooters good looks – he looked lost against NW – and make Burke work to guard him when they are in man. If you can tire him out a bit or draw a couple first half fouls by being aggressive that will be the difference in a tight game.

4) Michigan defends the 3-pt line very well… 4 of the 5 teams I looked at shoot over 35% from 3 as a team on the season, but against UM only 1 of the 5 shot better than 33%. Overall in their 5 toughest games UM has held teams to 30% (25-83) from behind the arc. My best guess is because they are quick, long, athletic, and interchangeable. They basically play 1 guard, 1 post and then 3 wings at all times. Stauskas, Hardaway, and Robinson are all 6’6″ and Levert is 6’5″. It will be interesting to see if we can get high quality perimeter looks and knock them down over that length. Ur best bet is to get them in transition or secondary break as UM is scrambling to get matched up.

5) UM doesn’t get to the line much… IU has made 75 more FT’s than UM has attempted. That’s a bit odd considering Michigan has been ahead in so many games where you’d think teams would be putting them on the line to try to get back in it at he end. They also don’t shoot it as well as we do (70% to 73.5%). Clearly this is an advantage for the Hoosiers, especially at home. Taking advantage of our size with Cody and Watford down low hopefully leads to a large foul discrepancy and +10 points at the line for IU.

 
#2 Saturday, February 2, 2013 - 5:22 PM EDT

Geoff,
Really good stuff as usual, but interesting on the free throws is this. Michigan fouls, I think, less than any other team in the country. They don’t go to the line much, but neither do their opponents. Opponents FTA/FGA is second according to KenPom. I think the way things give still leans toward IU, but I don’t know that I see IU going to the line 25 times against this team.

 
#3
Geoff
Saturday, February 2, 2013 - 5:40 PM EDT

Dustin… How about this:

IU goes 17-20 FT and Michigan goes 7-9 giving us a +10 points from the line and a great shot at winning at home.

Michigan will make a couple more 3′s than we do, but well make a a couple more 2′s pretty much evening things out and making the FT line the differentiator.

At least I hope.

I hesitate to make a prediction because the only one I remember from this year was a 7 point IU win over UW… :(

 
#4
Harvard for Hillbillies
Saturday, February 2, 2013 - 6:51 PM EDT

I really don’t know why we need Dustin….

I think the Hoosier are a good basketball team.

Michigan is also pretty good.

I think the Hoosiers are a little better and will score more points.

Cody needs to be careful not to foul too much and want to win.

Assembly Hall is pretty when everyone wears red.

I am a moderate Republican from Maine.

 
#5
Geoff
Saturday, February 2, 2013 - 7:17 PM EDT

Pretty much sums it up Harvard…

 
#6
Punjab
Saturday, February 2, 2013 - 7:20 PM EDT

Kansas just lost at home. Winner tonight is the clear #1. Go Big Red.

 
#7
Wolverine Fan
Saturday, February 2, 2013 - 8:07 PM EDT

OK, so let’s see who loses at home next–but the clear #1 is determined only in April.

 


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